How Marginal Point Advantage Can Help You Win

What is MPA?

Marginal Point Advantage, or MPA in shorthand, is the mathematical secret to fantasy sports success.

The great John Madden says it best- “Usually the team that scores the most points wins the game

The goal of any head to head match up is to score more points or win more categories than your opponent. MPA is going to help you do precisely just that. Simply put, marginal point advantage is the flat fantasy point difference between two players. If Matt Ryan scores 26 points in the same week that Tom Brady scores 20, then Matt “Matty Ice” Ryan has an mpa of +6. MPA is best used for figuring out a player’s value compared to others at the position.

MPA and your draft

When drafting and selecting your team each week, your goal should be to maximize on MPA with each player choice. Consider the following table of players for a draft scenario, and assume that you are able to select one player from each row to fill your three positions of need.

QB RB WR
Rank 1 28 ppg 21 ppg 22 ppg
Rank 2 25 ppg 15 ppg 21 ppg
Rank 3 24 ppg 14 ppg 15 ppg

When picking from your 1st row of players, the order based on ppg is QB > WR > RB.

So we pick the QB here right? Wrong.

The MPA order of the players is RB (+6) > QB (+3) > WR (+1), so picking our RB here gives us the best net point advantage compared to the other choices.

If we were to draft based on ppg rankings, we would end up with: QB1, RB3, and WR2 which totals up to 63 ppg for our three positions.

If we were to draft based on mpa rankings, we would end up with: QB3, RB1, and WR2 which  totals up to 66 ppg for our three positions.

This isn’t rocket science, and it definitely isn’t brain surgery. Mpa is a simple math trick designed to map out the best value for your team. When you select players, they are not in a vacuum. A player’s value to your team is determined not only by that player’s production but also by the production of the other available players at the same position.

Obviously a real fantasy draft is more complex, but the principle remains the same. Make your picks based on the player’s performance relative to the other available options at the position. If you value your team based on names or how good the individuals are, you will not succeed. Fantasy is not the NFL and getting the best player does not ensure getting the best value. Your goal is to optimize value with each move while still filling out an entire roster. Mpa varies as players get chosen, so be careful and make the smart pick.

Fantasy is a game of numbers, so always make sure to have them working in your favor.

-Kid

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Categories: Fantasy

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